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Rio Grande Valley vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Louisville City
Louisville City
10/2/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 43H-E-B Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rio Grande Valley34%
×Draw26%
Louisville City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.28
Louisville City
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 130 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Louisville City
1.59

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Louisville City
1.12

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Louisville City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Louisville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
60%
Rio Grande Valley or Louisville City
74%
Draw or Louisville City
66%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
15%
Louisville City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
72%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
37%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
14%
Louisville City 1+ goals
75%
Louisville City 2+ goals
41%
Louisville City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
46%
Louisville City (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Louisville City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.28

Louisville City attack 1.59 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
34%
level
26%
Louisville City scores more
40%

Louisville City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Rio Grande Valley 0–1 Louisville City

Louisville City beat Rio Grande Valley 1-0 in USL Championship on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at H-E-B Park in Edinburg, Texas.