Rio Grande Valley 1–1 Loudoun United

Rio Grande Valley

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Loudoun United

9/5/2021

USL Championship · Round 33H-E-B Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rio Grande Valley53%

×Draw24%

Loudoun United24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Grande ValleyExpected goals in this matchLoudoun United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.08

Rio Grande Valley

1.73

Loudoun United

1.08

Rio Grande Valley creates 60% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 115 away

1.44

creates per match

0.95

1.21

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley

1.44

Loudoun United

0.95

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley

1.21

Loudoun United

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Loudoun United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Loudoun United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw

76%

Rio Grande Valley or Loudoun United

76%

Draw or Loudoun United

47%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

29%

Loudoun United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

82%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

52%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

25%

Loudoun United 1+ goals

66%

Loudoun United 2+ goals

29%

Loudoun United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

69%

Loudoun United (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Loudoun United away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.03 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Loudoun United defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.73

Loudoun United attack 0.95 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more

53%

level

24%

Loudoun United scores more

24%

Rio Grande Valley at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff