Rio Grande Valley 0–2 Charleston Battery

Rio Grande Valley

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Charleston Battery

5/28/2023

USL Championship · Round 14H-E-B Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rio Grande Valley44%

×Draw25%

Charleston Battery31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Grande ValleyExpected goals in this matchCharleston Battery

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.23

Rio Grande Valley

1.52

Charleston Battery

1.23

Rio Grande Valley creates 24% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 134 away

1.44

creates per match

1.26

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley

1.44

Charleston Battery

1.26

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley

1.21

Charleston Battery

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Charleston Battery →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw

69%

Rio Grande Valley or Charleston Battery

75%

Draw or Charleston Battery

56%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

22%

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

78%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

45%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

20%

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

71%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

35%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

59%

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Charleston Battery defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Charleston Battery attack 1.26 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more

44%

level

25%

Charleston Battery scores more

31%

Rio Grande Valley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff