Rio Grande Valley 1–0 Birmingham Legion

Rio Grande Valley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Birmingham Legion

9/18/2023

USL Championship · Round 36H-E-B Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rio Grande Valley42%

×Draw25%

Birmingham Legion33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Grande ValleyExpected goals in this matchBirmingham Legion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.30

Rio Grande Valley

1.50

Birmingham Legion

1.30

Rio Grande Valley creates 15% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 119 away

1.44

creates per match

1.39

1.21

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley

1.44

Birmingham Legion

1.39

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley

1.21

Birmingham Legion

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Birmingham Legion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw

67%

Rio Grande Valley or Birmingham Legion

75%

Draw or Birmingham Legion

58%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

20%

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

78%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

44%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

19%

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals

73%

Birmingham Legion 2+ goals

37%

Birmingham Legion 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

56%

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Birmingham Legion away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Birmingham Legion attack 1.39 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more

42%

level

25%

Birmingham Legion scores more

33%

Rio Grande Valley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff