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Khatlon vs Parvoz — Vysshaya Liga 2013

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
1 – 1
Parvoz
Parvoz
10/26/2013Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 18Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Khatlon68%
×Draw20%
Parvoz12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
2.02
Parvoz
0.70

Khatlon creates 189% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.53
Parvoz
0.58

allows per match

Khatlon
0.82
Parvoz
2.50

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Parvoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
88%
Khatlon or Parvoz
80%
Draw or Parvoz
32%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
43%
Parvoz wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
87%
Khatlon 2+ goals
60%
Khatlon 3+ goals
33%
Parvoz 1+ goals
50%
Parvoz 2+ goals
16%
Parvoz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
85%
Parvoz (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.53 + Parvoz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.02

Parvoz attack 0.58 + Khatlon defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Khatlon scores more
68%
level
20%
Parvoz scores more
12%

Khatlon at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Khatlon 1–1 Parvoz

Khatlon and Parvoz drew 1-1 in Vysshaya Liga on October 26, 2013.

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.