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Rio Claro SP U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Rio Claro SP U20
Rio Claro SP U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
Giovani 62'
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Dr. Augusto Schmidt Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rio Claro SP U2024%
×Draw25%
XV de Jaú U2052%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Claro SP U20
1.04
XV de Jaú U20
1.65

XV de Jaú U20 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rio Claro SP U20
1.00
XV de Jaú U20
1.55

allows per match

Rio Claro SP U20
1.75
XV de Jaú U20
1.09

finishing

Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par
XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Claro SP U20 ↓

XV de Jaú U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rio Claro SP U20 or draw
48%
Rio Claro SP U20 or XV de Jaú U20
75%
Draw or XV de Jaú U20
76%

Winning margin

Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+
9%
XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals
65%
Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals
28%
Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals
9%
XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
81%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
49%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)
32%
XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Claro SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

XV de Jaú U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 1.00 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.55 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rio Claro SP U20 scores more
24%
level
25%
XV de Jaú U20 scores more
52%

XV de Jaú U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
Giovani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Rio Claro SP U20 1–0 XV de Jaú U20

Rio Claro SP U20 beat XV de Jaú U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

Goals: Giovani (62').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Augusto Schmidt Filho in Rio Claro, São Paulo.