Rio Claro SP U20 1–0 São Carlos U20: Result & Stats

Rio Claro SP U20

FT

1 – 0

São Carlos U20

5/3/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Dr. Augusto Schmidt Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Claro SP U2052%

×Draw24%

São Carlos U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Claro SP U20Expected goals in this matchSão Carlos U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.07

Rio Claro SP U20

1.70

São Carlos U20

1.07

Rio Claro SP U20 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

1.75

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Rio Claro SP U20

1.00

São Carlos U20

0.40

allows per match

Rio Claro SP U20

1.75

São Carlos U20

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par

São Carlos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Claro SP U20 ↓

São Carlos U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rio Claro SP U20 or draw

76%

Rio Claro SP U20 or São Carlos U20

76%

Draw or São Carlos U20

48%

Winning margin

Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+

28%

São Carlos U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals

82%

Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals

51%

Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals

24%

São Carlos U20 1+ goals

66%

São Carlos U20 2+ goals

29%

São Carlos U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)

69%

São Carlos U20 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Claro SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

São Carlos U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 1.00 + São Carlos U20 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

São Carlos U20 attack 0.40 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rio Claro SP U20 scores more

52%

level

24%

São Carlos U20 scores more

24%

Rio Claro SP U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rio Claro SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff