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Rio Claro SP U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Rio Claro SP U20
Rio Claro SP U20
FT
1 – 1
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
4/12/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Dr. Augusto Schmidt Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rio Claro SP U2023%
×Draw24%
Ferroviária U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Claro SP U20
1.04
Ferroviária U20
1.73

Ferroviária U20 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rio Claro SP U20
1.00
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

Rio Claro SP U20
1.75
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Claro SP U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rio Claro SP U20 or draw
47%
Rio Claro SP U20 or Ferroviária U20
76%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
77%

Winning margin

Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+
8%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals
65%
Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals
28%
Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals
9%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
82%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
52%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)
30%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Claro SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 1.00 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rio Claro SP U20 scores more
23%
level
24%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
53%

Ferroviária U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Claro SP U20 vs Ferroviária U20

Rio Claro SP U20 and Ferroviária U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Augusto Schmidt Filho in Rio Claro, São Paulo.