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Rio Claro SP U20 vs CA Taquaritinga U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Rio Claro SP U20
Rio Claro SP U20
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
CA Taquaritinga U20
CA Taquaritinga U20
P. Roberto 65' (pen), 60', 18' (pen)
Pedro 63'
Guilherme 40'
P. Ribeiro 4'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Dr. Augusto Schmidt Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Claro SP U2084%
×Draw10%
CA Taquaritinga U206%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Claro SP U20
3.60
CA Taquaritinga U20
0.97

Rio Claro SP U20 creates 271% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rio Claro SP U20
1.00
CA Taquaritinga U20
0.20

allows per match

Rio Claro SP U20
1.75
CA Taquaritinga U20
6.20

finishing

Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par
CA Taquaritinga U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 82Under: 1882%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Claro SP U20 ↓

CA Taquaritinga U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Rio Claro SP U20 or draw
94%
Rio Claro SP U20 or CA Taquaritinga U20
90%
Draw or CA Taquaritinga U20
16%

Winning margin

Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+
67%
CA Taquaritinga U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals
97%
Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals
86%
Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals
67%
CA Taquaritinga U20 1+ goals
62%
CA Taquaritinga U20 2+ goals
25%
CA Taquaritinga U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)
93%
CA Taquaritinga U20 (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Claro SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

CA Taquaritinga U20 away — creates 0.20, concedes 6.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 1.00 + CA Taquaritinga U20 defence 6.20 → ÷2 → 3.60

CA Taquaritinga U20 attack 0.20 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Rio Claro SP U20 scores more
84%
level
10%
CA Taquaritinga U20 scores more
6%

Rio Claro SP U20 at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Rio Claro SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
P. Ribeiro
18'
P. RobertoPenalty
40'
Guilherme
60'
P. Roberto
63'
Pedro
65'
P. RobertoPenalty
90+3'
D. da Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rio Claro SP U20 5 – 1 CA Taquaritinga U20

Rio Claro SP U20 beat CA Taquaritinga U20 5-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: P. Ribeiro (4'), P. Roberto (18' pen, 60', 65' pen), Guilherme (40'), Pedro (63').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Augusto Schmidt Filho in Rio Claro, São Paulo.