Rio Branco U20 2–1 Cosmopolitano Sports U20

Rio Branco U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

L. Moura 88'

Murilo 58'

Kaike 24'

5/24/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Décio Vitta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Branco U2033%

×Draw25%

Cosmopolitano Sports U2042%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Branco U20Expected goals in this matchCosmopolitano Sports U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.50

Rio Branco U20

1.30

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

1.50

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

1.20

1.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rio Branco U20

1.60

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

1.20

allows per match

Rio Branco U20

1.80

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Branco U20+0.00on par

Cosmopolitano Sports U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco U20 ↓

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rio Branco U20 or draw

58%

Rio Branco U20 or Cosmopolitano Sports U20

75%

Draw or Cosmopolitano Sports U20

67%

Winning margin

Rio Branco U20 wins by 2+

14%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rio Branco U20 1+ goals

73%

Rio Branco U20 2+ goals

37%

Rio Branco U20 3+ goals

14%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 1+ goals

78%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 2+ goals

44%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco U20 (draw refunded)

44%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco U20 attack 1.60 + Cosmopolitano Sports U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 attack 1.20 + Rio Branco U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rio Branco U20 scores more

33%

level

25%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 scores more

42%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cosmopolitano Sports U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Kaike

58'

Murilo

88'

L. Moura

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff