Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rio Branco PR vs Apucarana — Paranaense - 2 2020

Rio Branco PR
Rio Branco PR
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Apucarana
Apucarana
6/30/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 9Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rio Branco PR54%
×Draw24%
Apucarana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Branco PR
1.71
Apucarana
0.98

Rio Branco PR creates 74% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

creates per match

Rio Branco PR
1.92
Apucarana
0.79

allows per match

Rio Branco PR
1.17
Apucarana
1.50

finishing

Rio Branco PR+0.00on par
Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco PR ↓

Apucarana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rio Branco PR or draw
78%
Rio Branco PR or Apucarana
76%
Draw or Apucarana
46%

Winning margin

Rio Branco PR wins by 2+
30%
Apucarana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rio Branco PR 1+ goals
82%
Rio Branco PR 2+ goals
51%
Rio Branco PR 3+ goals
24%
Apucarana 1+ goals
62%
Apucarana 2+ goals
26%
Apucarana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco PR (draw refunded)
72%
Apucarana (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco PR at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco PR attack 1.92 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Apucarana attack 0.79 + Rio Branco PR defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rio Branco PR scores more
54%
level
24%
Apucarana scores more
22%

Rio Branco PR at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rio Branco PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Branco PR vs Apucarana

Rio Branco PR beat Apucarana 4-0 in Paranaense - 2 on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah in Paranaguá, Paraná.