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Rio Branco PR U20 vs Iraty U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Rio Branco PR U20
Rio Branco PR U20
FT
1 – 2
Iraty U20
Iraty U20
4/13/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 5Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rio Branco PR U2050%
×Draw22%
Iraty U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Branco PR U20
1.96
Iraty U20
1.42

Rio Branco PR U20 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rio Branco PR U20
0.67
Iraty U20
1.25

allows per match

Rio Branco PR U20
1.58
Iraty U20
3.25

finishing

Rio Branco PR U20+0.00on par
Iraty U20+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco PR U20 ↓

Iraty U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rio Branco PR U20 or draw
72%
Rio Branco PR U20 or Iraty U20
78%
Draw or Iraty U20
50%

Winning margin

Rio Branco PR U20 wins by 2+
28%
Iraty U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rio Branco PR U20 1+ goals
86%
Rio Branco PR U20 2+ goals
58%
Rio Branco PR U20 3+ goals
31%
Iraty U20 1+ goals
76%
Iraty U20 2+ goals
41%
Iraty U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco PR U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Iraty U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco PR U20 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Iraty U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco PR U20 attack 0.67 + Iraty U20 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Iraty U20 attack 1.25 + Rio Branco PR U20 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rio Branco PR U20 scores more
50%
level
22%
Iraty U20 scores more
28%

Rio Branco PR U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rio Branco PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Rio Branco PR U20 1–2 Iraty U20

Iraty U20 beat Rio Branco PR U20 2-1 in Paranaense U20 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah in Paranaguá, Paraná.