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Rio Branco PR U20 vs Batel U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Rio Branco PR U20
Rio Branco PR U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Batel U20
Batel U20
5/4/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 8Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rio Branco PR U2018%
×Draw24%
Batel U2058%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Branco PR U20
0.83
Batel U20
1.71

Batel U20 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rio Branco PR U20
0.67
Batel U20
1.83

allows per match

Rio Branco PR U20
1.58
Batel U20
1.00

finishing

Rio Branco PR U20+0.00on par
Batel U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco PR U20 ↓

Batel U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rio Branco PR U20 or draw
42%
Rio Branco PR U20 or Batel U20
76%
Draw or Batel U20
82%

Winning margin

Rio Branco PR U20 wins by 2+
6%
Batel U20 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Rio Branco PR U20 1+ goals
56%
Rio Branco PR U20 2+ goals
20%
Rio Branco PR U20 3+ goals
5%
Batel U20 1+ goals
82%
Batel U20 2+ goals
51%
Batel U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco PR U20 (draw refunded)
24%
Batel U20 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco PR U20 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Batel U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco PR U20 attack 0.67 + Batel U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Batel U20 attack 1.83 + Rio Branco PR U20 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rio Branco PR U20 scores more
18%
level
24%
Batel U20 scores more
58%

Batel U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Batel U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Rio Branco PR U20 1–0 Batel U20

Rio Branco PR U20 beat Batel U20 1-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah in Paranaguá, Paraná.