Rio Branco PR U20 0–1 Andraus Brasil U20

Rio Branco PR U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Andraus Brasil U20

3/30/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 3Complexo Poliespotivo Fernando Scharbub Farah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Branco PR U2031%

×Draw27%

Andraus Brasil U2043%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Branco PR U20Expected goals in this matchAndraus Brasil U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.39

Rio Branco PR U20

1.14

Andraus Brasil U20

1.39

Andraus Brasil U20 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

1.20

1.58

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rio Branco PR U20

0.67

Andraus Brasil U20

1.20

allows per match

Rio Branco PR U20

1.58

Andraus Brasil U20

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Branco PR U20+0.00on par

Andraus Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco PR U20 ↓

Andraus Brasil U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rio Branco PR U20 or draw

57%

Rio Branco PR U20 or Andraus Brasil U20

73%

Draw or Andraus Brasil U20

69%

Winning margin

Rio Branco PR U20 wins by 2+

12%

Andraus Brasil U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rio Branco PR U20 1+ goals

68%

Rio Branco PR U20 2+ goals

32%

Rio Branco PR U20 3+ goals

11%

Andraus Brasil U20 1+ goals

75%

Andraus Brasil U20 2+ goals

40%

Andraus Brasil U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco PR U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Andraus Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco PR U20 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Andraus Brasil U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco PR U20 attack 0.67 + Andraus Brasil U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Andraus Brasil U20 attack 1.20 + Rio Branco PR U20 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rio Branco PR U20 scores more

31%

level

27%

Andraus Brasil U20 scores more

43%

Andraus Brasil U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Andraus Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff