Rio Branco ES 1–1 Vilavelhense: Result & Stats

Rio Branco ES

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vilavelhense

Breninho 89'

J. D. Palacios Cantillo 35'

5/28/2026

Copa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rio Branco ES50%

×Draw24%

Vilavelhense26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Branco ESExpected goals in this matchVilavelhense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.17

Rio Branco ES

1.71

Vilavelhense

1.17

Rio Branco ES creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.53

creates per match

0.94

1.41

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Rio Branco ES

1.53

Vilavelhense

0.94

allows per match

Rio Branco ES

1.41

Vilavelhense

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Branco ES+0.00on par

Vilavelhense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco ES ↓

Vilavelhense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rio Branco ES or draw

74%

Rio Branco ES or Vilavelhense

76%

Draw or Vilavelhense

50%

Winning margin

Rio Branco ES wins by 2+

27%

Vilavelhense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rio Branco ES 1+ goals

82%

Rio Branco ES 2+ goals

51%

Rio Branco ES 3+ goals

24%

Vilavelhense 1+ goals

69%

Vilavelhense 2+ goals

33%

Vilavelhense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco ES (draw refunded)

66%

Vilavelhense (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco ES at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Vilavelhense away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco ES attack 1.53 + Vilavelhense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vilavelhense attack 0.94 + Rio Branco ES defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rio Branco ES scores more

50%

level

24%

Vilavelhense scores more

26%

Rio Branco ES at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rio Branco ES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

J. D. Palacios Cantillo

89'

Breninho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff