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Rio Branco ES vs Serra Talhada — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Rio Branco ES
Rio Branco ES
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Serra Talhada
Serra Talhada
Breninho 3'
6/6/2026Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rio Branco ES50%
×Draw23%
Serra Talhada27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Branco ES
1.77
Serra Talhada
1.25

Rio Branco ES creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Rio Branco ES
1.53
Serra Talhada
1.10

allows per match

Rio Branco ES
1.41
Serra Talhada
2.00

finishing

Rio Branco ES+0.00on par
Serra Talhada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco ES ↓

Serra Talhada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rio Branco ES or draw
73%
Rio Branco ES or Serra Talhada
77%
Draw or Serra Talhada
50%

Winning margin

Rio Branco ES wins by 2+
27%
Serra Talhada wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rio Branco ES 1+ goals
83%
Rio Branco ES 2+ goals
53%
Rio Branco ES 3+ goals
26%
Serra Talhada 1+ goals
71%
Serra Talhada 2+ goals
36%
Serra Talhada 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco ES (draw refunded)
65%
Serra Talhada (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco ES at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Serra Talhada away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco ES attack 1.53 + Serra Talhada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Serra Talhada attack 1.10 + Rio Branco ES defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rio Branco ES scores more
50%
level
23%
Serra Talhada scores more
27%

Rio Branco ES at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rio Branco ES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Breninho
Rio
Serra
Junior Cicero
Manager: Junior Cicero
Leomir
Manager: Leomir

Copa Espírito Santo: Rio Branco ES 1–0 Serra Talhada

Rio Branco ES beat Serra Talhada 1-0 in Copa Espírito Santo on June 6, 2026.

Goals: Breninho (3').