Rio Ave 2–0 Portimonense: Result & Stats

Rio Ave

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portimonense

1/7/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 16Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Rio Ave47%

×Draw26%

Portimonense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio AveExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.09

Rio Ave

1.50

Portimonense

1.09

Rio Ave creates 38% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 103 away

1.25

creates per match

0.87

1.32

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Rio Ave

1.25

Portimonense

0.87

allows per match

Rio Ave

1.32

Portimonense

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Ave+0.00on par

Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw

72%

Rio Ave or Portimonense

74%

Draw or Portimonense

53%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+

23%

Portimonense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals

78%

Rio Ave 2+ goals

44%

Rio Ave 3+ goals

19%

Portimonense 1+ goals

66%

Portimonense 2+ goals

30%

Portimonense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)

63%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.25 + Portimonense defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Portimonense attack 0.87 + Rio Ave defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rio Ave scores more

47%

level

26%

Portimonense scores more

28%

Rio Ave at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff