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Rio Ave vs Estoril — Taça de Portugal 2018

Rio Ave
Rio Ave
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Estoril
Estoriladvanced
1/12/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rio Ave39%
×Draw24%
Estoril37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave
1.57
Estoril
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Rio Ave
2.22
Estoril
2.17

allows per match

Rio Ave
0.89
Estoril
0.92

finishing

Rio Ave+0.00on par
Estoril+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Estoril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw
63%
Rio Ave or Estoril
76%
Draw or Estoril
61%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+
19%
Estoril wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals
79%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
46%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
21%
Estoril 1+ goals
78%
Estoril 2+ goals
45%
Estoril 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)
51%
Estoril (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Estoril away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 2.22 + Estoril defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.57

Estoril attack 2.17 + Rio Ave defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rio Ave scores more
39%
level
24%
Estoril scores more
37%

Rio Ave at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Rio Ave 1–2 Estoril

Estoril beat Rio Ave 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on January 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde.