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Estoril vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
2/22/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 23Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Estoril41%
×Draw26%
Rio Ave33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.43
Rio Ave
1.26

Estoril creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.29
Rio Ave
0.68

allows per match

Estoril
1.84
Rio Ave
1.57

finishing

Estoril+0.24scores more
Rio Ave+0.32scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
67%
Estoril or Rio Ave
74%
Draw or Rio Ave
59%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
19%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
76%
Estoril 2+ goals
42%
Estoril 3+ goals
17%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
72%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
36%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
55%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.84 · 15 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.57 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.29 + Rio Ave defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rio Ave attack 0.68 + Estoril defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Estoril scores more
41%
level
26%
Rio Ave scores more
33%

Estoril at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Estoril 2–1 Rio Ave

Estoril beat Rio Ave 2-1 in Primeira Liga on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.