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Rio Ave vs Boavista — Primeira Liga 2018

Rio Ave
Rio Ave
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Boavista
Boavista
4/7/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 28Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Rio Ave44%
×Draw26%
Boavista31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave
1.46
Boavista
1.18

Rio Ave creates 24% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

creates per match

Rio Ave
1.25
Boavista
1.03

allows per match

Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.68

finishing

Rio Ave+0.00on par
Boavista+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Boavista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw
69%
Rio Ave or Boavista
74%
Draw or Boavista
56%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+
21%
Boavista wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals
77%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
43%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
18%
Boavista 1+ goals
69%
Boavista 2+ goals
33%
Boavista 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)
59%
Boavista (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

Boavista away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.68 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.25 + Boavista defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Boavista attack 1.03 + Rio Ave defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rio Ave scores more
44%
level
26%
Boavista scores more
31%

Rio Ave at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Ave vs Boavista

Boavista beat Rio Ave 2-0 in Primeira Liga on April 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde.