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Rio Ave U23 vs Benfica U23 — League #701 2026

Rio Ave U23
Rio Ave U23
FT
0 – 4
Benfica U23
Benfica U23
2/25/2021League #701League #701 · Relegation Round - 11Estádio Monte de Azevido

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rio Ave U2331%
×Draw21%
Benfica U2348%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave U23
1.65
Benfica U23
2.10

Benfica U23 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rio Ave U23
1.67
Benfica U23
1.71

allows per match

Rio Ave U23
2.50
Benfica U23
1.64

finishing

Rio Ave U23+0.00on par
Benfica U23+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave U23 ↓

Benfica U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Rio Ave U23 or draw
52%
Rio Ave U23 or Benfica U23
79%
Draw or Benfica U23
69%

Winning margin

Rio Ave U23 wins by 2+
15%
Benfica U23 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rio Ave U23 1+ goals
81%
Rio Ave U23 2+ goals
49%
Rio Ave U23 3+ goals
23%
Benfica U23 1+ goals
88%
Benfica U23 2+ goals
62%
Benfica U23 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave U23 (draw refunded)
39%
Benfica U23 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave U23 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Benfica U23 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave U23 attack 1.67 + Benfica U23 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Benfica U23 attack 1.71 + Rio Ave U23 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rio Ave U23 scores more
31%
level
21%
Benfica U23 scores more
48%

Benfica U23 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benfica U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #701: Rio Ave U23 0–4 Benfica U23

Benfica U23 beat Rio Ave U23 4-0 in League #701 on February 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Monte de Azevido in Paredes.