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Río Aguarico vs Universidad Catolica — Copa Ecuador 2022

Río Aguarico
Río Aguarico
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolicaadvanced
G. Anangono 63' (pen)
7/31/2025Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 32Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Río Aguarico14%
×Draw21%
Universidad Catolica65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Río Aguarico
0.74
Universidad Catolica
1.90

Universidad Catolica creates 157% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Río Aguarico
0.60
Universidad Catolica
2.00

allows per match

Río Aguarico
1.80
Universidad Catolica
0.89

finishing

Río Aguarico+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Río Aguarico ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Río Aguarico or draw
35%
Río Aguarico or Universidad Catolica
79%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
86%

Winning margin

Río Aguarico wins by 2+
4%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Río Aguarico 1+ goals
52%
Río Aguarico 2+ goals
17%
Río Aguarico 3+ goals
4%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
85%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
56%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Río Aguarico (draw refunded)
18%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Río Aguarico at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Río Aguarico attack 0.60 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Universidad Catolica attack 2.00 + Río Aguarico defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Río Aguarico scores more
14%
level
21%
Universidad Catolica scores more
65%

Universidad Catolica at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
G. AnangonoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Ecuador: Río Aguarico 0–1 Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica beat Río Aguarico 1-0 in Copa Ecuador on July 31, 2025.

Goals: G. Anangono (63' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.