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Río Aguarico vs Leones del Norte — Copa Ecuador 2022

Río Aguarico
Río Aguarico
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
J. Montes 45+5'
K. Jimenez 35'
6/23/2024Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · 1st RoundEstadio Carlos Vernaza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Río Aguarico4%
×Draw15%
Leones del Norte81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Río Aguarico
0.30
Leones del Norte
2.15

Leones del Norte creates 617% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Río Aguarico
0.60
Leones del Norte
2.50

allows per match

Río Aguarico
1.80
Leones del Norte
0.00

finishing

Río Aguarico+0.00on par
Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Río Aguarico ↓

Leones del Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–119%
0–220%
0–314%
0–48%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (20%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Río Aguarico or draw
19%
Río Aguarico or Leones del Norte
85%
Draw or Leones del Norte
96%

Winning margin

Río Aguarico wins by 2+
1%
Leones del Norte wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Río Aguarico 1+ goals
26%
Río Aguarico 2+ goals
4%
Río Aguarico 3+ goals
0%
Leones del Norte 1+ goals
88%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
63%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Río Aguarico (draw refunded)
5%
Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Río Aguarico at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Río Aguarico attack 0.60 + Leones del Norte defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.30

Leones del Norte attack 2.50 + Río Aguarico defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Río Aguarico scores more
4%
level
15%
Leones del Norte scores more
81%

Leones del Norte at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
K. Jimenez
45+5'
J. Montes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Río Aguarico vs Leones del Norte

Leones del Norte beat Río Aguarico 2-0 in Copa Ecuador on June 23, 2024.

Goals: K. Jimenez (35'), J. Montes (45+5').

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Vernaza in Nueva Loja.