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Rinconeda Polanco vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Campo Municipal de Polanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rinconeda Polanco26%
×Draw25%
Siete Villas49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rinconeda Polanco
1.10
Siete Villas
1.60

Siete Villas creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rinconeda Polanco
0.93
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Rinconeda Polanco
2.20
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rinconeda Polanco ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rinconeda Polanco or draw
51%
Rinconeda Polanco or Siete Villas
75%
Draw or Siete Villas
74%

Winning margin

Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
10%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
67%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
30%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
10%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
80%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
47%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
35%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rinconeda Polanco at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.93 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rinconeda Polanco scores more
26%
level
25%
Siete Villas scores more
49%

Siete Villas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rinconeda Polanco 1 – 1 Siete Villas

Rinconeda Polanco and Siete Villas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Polanco in Polanco.