Rinconeda Polanco 1–3 Sámano: Result & Stats

Rinconeda Polanco

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Sámano

11/14/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Campo Municipal de Polanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rinconeda Polanco28%

×Draw24%

Sámano48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rinconeda PolancoExpected goals in this matchSámano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.65

Rinconeda Polanco

1.19

Sámano

1.65

Sámano creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

0.93

creates per match

1.09

2.20

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Rinconeda Polanco

0.93

Sámano

1.09

allows per match

Rinconeda Polanco

2.20

Sámano

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par

Sámano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rinconeda Polanco ↓

Sámano →

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rinconeda Polanco or draw

52%

Rinconeda Polanco or Sámano

76%

Draw or Sámano

72%

Winning margin

Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+

11%

Sámano wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals

70%

Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals

33%

Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals

12%

Sámano 1+ goals

81%

Sámano 2+ goals

49%

Sámano 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)

36%

Sámano (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rinconeda Polanco at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Sámano away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.93 + Sámano defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sámano attack 1.09 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rinconeda Polanco scores more

28%

level

24%

Sámano scores more

48%

Sámano at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff