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Rinconeda Polanco vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
1/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Campo Municipal de Polanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rinconeda Polanco24%
×Draw23%
Atlético Albericia54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rinconeda Polanco
1.19
Atlético Albericia
1.89

Atlético Albericia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 108 away

creates per match

Rinconeda Polanco
0.93
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Rinconeda Polanco
2.20
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rinconeda Polanco ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rinconeda Polanco or draw
46%
Rinconeda Polanco or Atlético Albericia
77%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
76%

Winning margin

Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
70%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
33%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
56%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
31%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rinconeda Polanco at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.93 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rinconeda Polanco scores more
24%
level
23%
Atlético Albericia scores more
54%

Atlético Albericia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rinconeda Polanco 2 – 2 Atlético Albericia

Rinconeda Polanco and Atlético Albericia drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Polanco in Polanco.