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Rincón vs Torre del Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Rincón
Rincón
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 23Estadio Francisco Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rincón27%
×Draw27%
Torre del Mar46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rincón
1.02
Torre del Mar
1.41

Torre del Mar creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

creates per match

Rincón
0.88
Torre del Mar
1.17

allows per match

Rincón
1.65
Torre del Mar
1.16

finishing

Rincón+0.00on par
Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rincón ↓

Torre del Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rincón or draw
54%
Rincón or Torre del Mar
73%
Draw or Torre del Mar
73%

Winning margin

Rincón wins by 2+
10%
Torre del Mar wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Rincón 1+ goals
64%
Rincón 2+ goals
27%
Rincón 3+ goals
8%
Torre del Mar 1+ goals
76%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
41%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rincón (draw refunded)
37%
Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rincón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Torre del Mar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rincón attack 0.88 + Torre del Mar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Torre del Mar attack 1.17 + Rincón defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rincón scores more
27%
level
27%
Torre del Mar scores more
46%

Torre del Mar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Rincón 0–4 Torre del Mar

Torre del Mar beat Rincón 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Romero in Rincón de la Victoria.