Rincón 0–0 Malaga City: Result & Stats

Rincón

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga City

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Estadio Francisco Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rincón43%

×Draw26%

Malaga City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RincónExpected goals in this matchMalaga City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.16

Rincón

1.42

Malaga City

1.16

Rincón creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

0.88

creates per match

0.67

1.65

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Rincón

0.88

Malaga City

0.67

allows per match

Rincón

1.65

Malaga City

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rincón+0.00on par

Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rincón ↓

Malaga City →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rincón or draw

69%

Rincón or Malaga City

74%

Draw or Malaga City

57%

Winning margin

Rincón wins by 2+

21%

Malaga City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rincón 1+ goals

76%

Rincón 2+ goals

41%

Rincón 3+ goals

17%

Malaga City 1+ goals

69%

Malaga City 2+ goals

32%

Malaga City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rincón (draw refunded)

58%

Malaga City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rincón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rincón attack 0.88 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.42

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Rincón defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rincón scores more

43%

level

26%

Malaga City scores more

31%

Rincón at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rincón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff