Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rincón vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Rincón
Rincón
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Estadio Francisco Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rincón32%
×Draw27%
Huétor Tájar42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rincón
1.17
Huétor Tájar
1.38

Huétor Tájar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Rincón
0.88
Huétor Tájar
1.11

allows per match

Rincón
1.65
Huétor Tájar
1.45

finishing

Rincón+0.00on par
Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rincón ↓

Huétor Tájar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rincón or draw
58%
Rincón or Huétor Tájar
73%
Draw or Huétor Tájar
68%

Winning margin

Rincón wins by 2+
13%
Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rincón 1+ goals
69%
Rincón 2+ goals
33%
Rincón 3+ goals
11%
Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
75%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
40%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rincón (draw refunded)
43%
Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rincón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rincón attack 0.88 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Rincón defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rincón scores more
32%
level
27%
Huétor Tájar scores more
42%

Huétor Tájar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rincón vs Huétor Tájar

Huétor Tájar beat Rincón 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Romero in Rincón de la Victoria.