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Rincón vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Rincón
Rincón
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
2/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 21Estadio Francisco Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rincón69%
×Draw17%
Atlético Melilla14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rincón
2.53
Atlético Melilla
1.06

Rincón creates 139% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rincón
0.88
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Rincón
1.65
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Rincón+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rincón ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rincón or draw
86%
Rincón or Atlético Melilla
83%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
31%

Winning margin

Rincón wins by 2+
47%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rincón 1+ goals
92%
Rincón 2+ goals
71%
Rincón 3+ goals
46%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rincón (draw refunded)
83%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rincón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rincón attack 0.88 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.53

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Rincón defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rincón scores more
69%
level
17%
Atlético Melilla scores more
14%

Rincón at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rincón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Rincón 2–0 Atlético Melilla

Rincón beat Atlético Melilla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Romero in Rincón de la Victoria.