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Rimavská Sobota vs Žarnovica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rimavská Sobota
Rimavská Sobota
FT
4 – 0
Žarnovica
Žarnovica
5/29/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 14Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rimavská Sobota67%
×Draw17%
Žarnovica16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rimavská Sobota
2.56
Žarnovica
1.16

Rimavská Sobota creates 121% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rimavská Sobota
2.00
Žarnovica
1.04

allows per match

Rimavská Sobota
1.28
Žarnovica
3.13

finishing

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par
Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rimavská Sobota ↓

Žarnovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rimavská Sobota or draw
84%
Rimavská Sobota or Žarnovica
83%
Draw or Žarnovica
33%

Winning margin

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+
45%
Žarnovica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals
92%
Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals
72%
Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals
46%
Žarnovica 1+ goals
69%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
32%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)
81%
Žarnovica (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rimavská Sobota at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rimavská Sobota attack 2.00 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.56

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Rimavská Sobota defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rimavská Sobota scores more
67%
level
17%
Žarnovica scores more
16%

Rimavská Sobota at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rimavská Sobota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Rimavská Sobota 4–0 Žarnovica

Rimavská Sobota beat Žarnovica 4-0 in 3. liga - Center on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách in Rimavská Sobota.