Rimavská Sobota 3–0 Slovan Giraltovce

Rimavská Sobota

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Slovan Giraltovce

8/14/2022

3. liga - East · East - 2Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rimavská Sobota70%

×Draw18%

Slovan Giraltovce12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rimavská SobotaExpected goals in this matchSlovan Giraltovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.84

Rimavská Sobota

2.32

Slovan Giraltovce

0.84

Rimavská Sobota creates 176% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

2.30

creates per match

0.50

1.18

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Rimavská Sobota

2.30

Slovan Giraltovce

0.50

allows per match

Rimavská Sobota

1.18

Slovan Giraltovce

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rimavská Sobota ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rimavská Sobota or draw

88%

Rimavská Sobota or Slovan Giraltovce

82%

Draw or Slovan Giraltovce

30%

Winning margin

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+

47%

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals

90%

Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals

67%

Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals

40%

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

57%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

21%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)

85%

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rimavská Sobota at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rimavská Sobota attack 2.30 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.32

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Rimavská Sobota defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rimavská Sobota scores more

70%

level

18%

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

12%

Rimavská Sobota at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rimavská Sobota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff