Rimavská Sobota 3–0 Liptovský Hrádok

Rimavská Sobota

FT

3 – 0

Liptovský Hrádok

5/7/2022

3. liga - Center · Center - 22Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rimavská Sobota65%

×Draw18%

Liptovský Hrádok16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rimavská SobotaExpected goals in this matchLiptovský Hrádok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.14

Rimavská Sobota

2.43

Liptovský Hrádok

1.14

Rimavská Sobota creates 113% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 22 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.28

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Rimavská Sobota

2.00

Liptovský Hrádok

1.00

allows per match

Rimavská Sobota

1.28

Liptovský Hrádok

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rimavská Sobota ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Rimavská Sobota or draw

84%

Rimavská Sobota or Liptovský Hrádok

82%

Draw or Liptovský Hrádok

35%

Winning margin

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+

43%

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals

91%

Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals

69%

Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals

43%

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals

68%

Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals

32%

Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)

80%

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rimavská Sobota at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rimavská Sobota attack 2.00 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Rimavská Sobota defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rimavská Sobota scores more

65%

level

18%

Liptovský Hrádok scores more

16%

Rimavská Sobota at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rimavská Sobota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff