Rimavská Sobota 3–1 Kováčová: Result & Stats

Rimavská Sobota

FT

3 – 1

Kováčová

8/1/2020

3. liga - Center · Center - 1Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rimavská Sobota50%

×Draw24%

Kováčová27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rimavská SobotaExpected goals in this matchKováčová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.21

Rimavská Sobota

1.74

Kováčová

1.21

Rimavská Sobota creates 44% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

2.00

creates per match

1.13

1.28

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Rimavská Sobota

2.00

Kováčová

1.13

allows per match

Rimavská Sobota

1.28

Kováčová

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par

Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rimavská Sobota ↓

Kováčová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rimavská Sobota or draw

73%

Rimavská Sobota or Kováčová

76%

Draw or Kováčová

50%

Winning margin

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+

27%

Kováčová wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals

82%

Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals

52%

Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals

25%

Kováčová 1+ goals

70%

Kováčová 2+ goals

34%

Kováčová 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)

65%

Kováčová (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rimavská Sobota at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rimavská Sobota attack 2.00 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Rimavská Sobota defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rimavská Sobota scores more

50%

level

24%

Kováčová scores more

27%

Rimavská Sobota at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rimavská Sobota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff