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Rilski Sportist vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
5 – 0
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
11/24/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 17Stadion Iskar (Samokov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rilski Sportist70%
×Draw18%
Velbazhd12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
2.25
Velbazhd
0.80

Rilski Sportist creates 181% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
88%
Rilski Sportist or Velbazhd
82%
Draw or Velbazhd
30%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
46%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
89%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
65%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
39%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
55%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
19%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
85%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.25

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
70%
level
18%
Velbazhd scores more
12%

Rilski Sportist at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rilski Sportist vs Velbazhd

Rilski Sportist beat Velbazhd 5-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Iskar (Samokov).