Rilski Sportist 4–0 Slavia Sofia II: Result & Stats

Rilski Sportist

FT

4 – 0

Slavia Sofia II

11/18/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 18Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rilski Sportist52%

×Draw23%

Slavia Sofia II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rilski SportistExpected goals in this matchSlavia Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.22

Rilski Sportist

1.85

Slavia Sofia II

1.22

Rilski Sportist creates 52% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 70 away

1.72

creates per match

1.33

1.10

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Rilski Sportist

1.72

Slavia Sofia II

1.33

allows per match

Rilski Sportist

1.10

Slavia Sofia II

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Slavia Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw

75%

Rilski Sportist or Slavia Sofia II

77%

Draw or Slavia Sofia II

48%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

29%

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

84%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

55%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

28%

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals

70%

Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals

34%

Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

67%

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.85

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more

52%

level

23%

Slavia Sofia II scores more

25%

Rilski Sportist at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff