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Rilski Sportist vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
2 – 0
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
4/14/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 24Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rilski Sportist67%
×Draw19%
Perun Kresna14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
2.15
Perun Kresna
0.84

Rilski Sportist creates 156% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 26 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
86%
Rilski Sportist or Perun Kresna
81%
Draw or Perun Kresna
33%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
43%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
88%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
63%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
36%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
57%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
21%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
83%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.15

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
67%
level
19%
Perun Kresna scores more
14%

Rilski Sportist at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rilski Sportist vs Perun Kresna

Rilski Sportist beat Perun Kresna 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Iskar in Samokov.