Rilski Sportist 3–1 Oborishte: Result & Stats

Rilski Sportist

FT

3 – 1

Oborishte

5/25/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 36Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Rilski Sportist46%

×Draw24%

Oborishte29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rilski SportistExpected goals in this matchOborishte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Rilski Sportist

1.64

Oborishte

1.25

Rilski Sportist creates 31% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 132 away

1.72

creates per match

1.39

1.10

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Rilski Sportist

1.72

Oborishte

1.39

allows per match

Rilski Sportist

1.10

Oborishte

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Oborishte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Oborishte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw

71%

Rilski Sportist or Oborishte

76%

Draw or Oborishte

54%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

24%

Oborishte wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

81%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

49%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

23%

Oborishte 1+ goals

71%

Oborishte 2+ goals

36%

Oborishte 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

61%

Oborishte (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Oborishte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Oborishte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Oborishte attack 1.39 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more

46%

level

24%

Oborishte scores more

29%

Rilski Sportist at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff