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Rilski Sportist vs Levski Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
5/9/2026Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rilski Sportist53%
×Draw25%
Levski Sofia II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
1.60
Levski Sofia II
0.94

Rilski Sportist creates 70% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 69 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Levski Sofia II
0.78

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Levski Sofia II
1.49

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Levski Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
78%
Rilski Sportist or Levski Sofia II
75%
Draw or Levski Sofia II
47%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
28%
Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
80%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
47%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
22%
Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
61%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
24%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
70%
Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Levski Sofia II away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Levski Sofia II attack 0.78 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
53%
level
25%
Levski Sofia II scores more
22%

Rilski Sportist at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Rilski Sportist 2–0 Levski Sofia II

Rilski Sportist beat Levski Sofia II 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 9, 2026.