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Rijnvogels vs RKAV Volendam — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam
4/1/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 27Sportpark De Kooltuin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rijnvogels47%
×Draw22%
RKAV Volendam32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnvogels
1.98
RKAV Volendam
1.60

Rijnvogels creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rijnvogels
1.76
RKAV Volendam
1.74

allows per match

Rijnvogels
1.47
RKAV Volendam
2.21

finishing

Rijnvogels+0.00on par
RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnvogels ↓

RKAV Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rijnvogels or draw
68%
Rijnvogels or RKAV Volendam
78%
Draw or RKAV Volendam
53%

Winning margin

Rijnvogels wins by 2+
26%
RKAV Volendam wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rijnvogels 1+ goals
86%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
59%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
31%
RKAV Volendam 1+ goals
80%
RKAV Volendam 2+ goals
47%
RKAV Volendam 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
60%
RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnvogels at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnvogels attack 1.76 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.98

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + Rijnvogels defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rijnvogels scores more
47%
level
22%
RKAV Volendam scores more
32%

Rijnvogels at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rijnvogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Rijnvogels 5–0 RKAV Volendam

Rijnvogels beat RKAV Volendam 5-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Kooltuin in Katwijk aan Zee.