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Rijnvogels vs OJC Rosmalen — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
1/25/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 20Sportpark De Kooltuin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rijnvogels51%
×Draw22%
OJC Rosmalen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnvogels
1.98
OJC Rosmalen
1.39

Rijnvogels creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rijnvogels
2.12
OJC Rosmalen
1.45

allows per match

Rijnvogels
1.32
OJC Rosmalen
1.84

finishing

Rijnvogels+0.00on par
OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnvogels ↓

OJC Rosmalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rijnvogels or draw
73%
Rijnvogels or OJC Rosmalen
78%
Draw or OJC Rosmalen
49%

Winning margin

Rijnvogels wins by 2+
29%
OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rijnvogels 1+ goals
86%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
59%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
31%
OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
75%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
40%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
65%
OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnvogels at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnvogels attack 2.12 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.98

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + Rijnvogels defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rijnvogels scores more
51%
level
22%
OJC Rosmalen scores more
27%

Rijnvogels at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rijnvogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Rijnvogels 1–0 OJC Rosmalen

Rijnvogels beat OJC Rosmalen 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Kooltuin in Katwijk aan Zee.