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Rijnvogels vs Ijsselmeervogels — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ijsselmeervogels
Ijsselmeervogels
11/18/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 13Sportpark De Kooltuin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rijnvogels34%
×Draw23%
Ijsselmeervogels43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnvogels
1.51
Ijsselmeervogels
1.73

Ijsselmeervogels creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rijnvogels
1.76
Ijsselmeervogels
2.00

allows per match

Rijnvogels
1.47
Ijsselmeervogels
1.26

finishing

Rijnvogels+0.00on par
Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnvogels ↓

Ijsselmeervogels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rijnvogels or draw
57%
Rijnvogels or Ijsselmeervogels
77%
Draw or Ijsselmeervogels
66%

Winning margin

Rijnvogels wins by 2+
16%
Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rijnvogels 1+ goals
78%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
44%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
19%
Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals
82%
Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals
52%
Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
44%
Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnvogels at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Ijsselmeervogels away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnvogels attack 1.76 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ijsselmeervogels attack 2.00 + Rijnvogels defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rijnvogels scores more
34%
level
23%
Ijsselmeervogels scores more
43%

Ijsselmeervogels at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rijnvogels vs Ijsselmeervogels

Rijnvogels beat Ijsselmeervogels 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Kooltuin in Katwijk aan Zee.