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Rijnvogels vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
8/19/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 1Sportpark De Kooltuin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rijnvogels52%
×Draw21%
HSV ODIN 5927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnvogels
2.10
HSV ODIN 59
1.45

Rijnvogels creates 45% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 46 away

creates per match

Rijnvogels
1.76
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

Rijnvogels
1.47
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

Rijnvogels+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnvogels ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rijnvogels or draw
73%
Rijnvogels or HSV ODIN 59
79%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
48%

Winning margin

Rijnvogels wins by 2+
31%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rijnvogels 1+ goals
88%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
62%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
35%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
77%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
42%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
66%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnvogels at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnvogels attack 1.76 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.10

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + Rijnvogels defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rijnvogels scores more
52%
level
21%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
27%

Rijnvogels at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rijnvogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rijnvogels vs HSV ODIN 59

Rijnvogels beat HSV ODIN 59 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Kooltuin in Katwijk aan Zee.