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Rijnsburgse Boys vs Spakenburg — Tweede Divisie 2019

Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Spakenburg
Spakenburg
11/22/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 14Sportpark Middelmors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys49%
×Draw22%
Spakenburg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.98
Spakenburg
1.50

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 32% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 101 away

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
2.13
Spakenburg
1.79

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.21
Spakenburg
1.82

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par
Spakenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

Spakenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw
71%
Rijnsburgse Boys or Spakenburg
78%
Draw or Spakenburg
51%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
28%
Spakenburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
86%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
59%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
31%
Spakenburg 1+ goals
78%
Spakenburg 2+ goals
44%
Spakenburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
62%
Spakenburg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Spakenburg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.13 + Spakenburg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Spakenburg attack 1.79 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
49%
level
22%
Spakenburg scores more
29%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rijnsburgse Boys vs Spakenburg

Spakenburg beat Rijnsburgse Boys 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Middelmors in Rijnsburg.