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Rijnsburgse Boys vs OFC Oostzaan — Tweede Divisie 2019

Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
9/3/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 3Sportpark Middelmors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys71%
×Draw16%
OFC Oostzaan12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnsburgse Boys
2.56
OFC Oostzaan
0.96

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 167% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
2.13
OFC Oostzaan
0.71

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.21
OFC Oostzaan
3.00

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw
88%
Rijnsburgse Boys or OFC Oostzaan
84%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
29%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
50%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
92%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
72%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
46%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
62%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
25%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
85%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.13 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
71%
level
16%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
12%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rijnsburgse Boys vs OFC Oostzaan

Rijnsburgse Boys beat OFC Oostzaan 3-0 in Tweede Divisie on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Middelmors in Rijnsburg.