Rijnsburgse Boys 1–0 Kozakken Boys: Result & Stats

Rijnsburgse Boys

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kozakken Boys

2/21/2026

Tweede Divisie · Round 23Sportpark Middelmors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys53%

×Draw23%

Kozakken Boys24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rijnsburgse BoysExpected goals in this matchKozakken Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.19

Rijnsburgse Boys

1.88

Kozakken Boys

1.19

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 58% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 87 away

2.13

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys

2.13

Kozakken Boys

1.17

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys

1.21

Kozakken Boys

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

Kozakken Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw

76%

Rijnsburgse Boys or Kozakken Boys

77%

Draw or Kozakken Boys

47%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+

30%

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals

85%

Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals

56%

Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals

29%

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals

70%

Kozakken Boys 2+ goals

33%

Kozakken Boys 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)

69%

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Kozakken Boys away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.13 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kozakken Boys attack 1.17 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more

53%

level

23%

Kozakken Boys scores more

24%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff