Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rijnsburgse Boys vs Katwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Katwijk
Katwijk
11/8/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 12Sportpark Middelmors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys44%
×Draw23%
Katwijk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.73
Katwijk
1.48

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 17% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
2.13
Katwijk
1.75

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.21
Katwijk
1.32

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par
Katwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

Katwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw
67%
Rijnsburgse Boys or Katwijk
77%
Draw or Katwijk
56%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
23%
Katwijk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
82%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
52%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
25%
Katwijk 1+ goals
77%
Katwijk 2+ goals
43%
Katwijk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
57%
Katwijk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Katwijk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.13 + Katwijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Katwijk attack 1.75 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
44%
level
23%
Katwijk scores more
33%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Rijnsburgse Boys 1–3 Katwijk

Katwijk beat Rijnsburgse Boys 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Middelmors in Rijnsburg.