Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rijnsburgse Boys vs De Treffers — Tweede Divisie 2019

Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
De Treffers
De Treffers
2/24/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 23Sportpark Middelmors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys47%
×Draw23%
De Treffers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.82
De Treffers
1.41

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 29% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
2.13
De Treffers
1.60

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.21
De Treffers
1.51

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par
De Treffers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

De Treffers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw
70%
Rijnsburgse Boys or De Treffers
77%
Draw or De Treffers
53%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
26%
De Treffers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
84%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
54%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
27%
De Treffers 1+ goals
76%
De Treffers 2+ goals
41%
De Treffers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
61%
De Treffers (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

De Treffers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.13 + De Treffers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.82

De Treffers attack 1.60 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
47%
level
23%
De Treffers scores more
30%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rijnsburgse Boys vs De Treffers

De Treffers beat Rijnsburgse Boys 4-2 in Tweede Divisie on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Middelmors in Rijnsburg.