Rijnsburgse Boys 5–1 Barendrecht: Result & Stats

Rijnsburgse Boys

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Barendrecht

E. Fiemawhle 90'

M. van der Weijden 80', 67'

J. Simoes 27', 9'

B. de Bruin 40'

10/11/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 9Sportpark Middelmors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys62%

×Draw19%

Barendrecht19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rijnsburgse BoysExpected goals in this matchBarendrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.19

Rijnsburgse Boys

2.29

Barendrecht

1.19

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 92% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 48 away

2.15

creates per match

1.15

1.22

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys

2.15

Barendrecht

1.15

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys

1.22

Barendrecht

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Barendrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

Barendrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw

81%

Rijnsburgse Boys or Barendrecht

81%

Draw or Barendrecht

38%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+

39%

Barendrecht wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals

90%

Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals

66%

Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals

40%

Barendrecht 1+ goals

70%

Barendrecht 2+ goals

33%

Barendrecht 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)

77%

Barendrecht (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Barendrecht away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.44 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.15 + Barendrecht defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.29

Barendrecht attack 1.15 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more

62%

level

19%

Barendrecht scores more

19%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. Simoes

27'

J. Simoes↳ Y. Tufi

40'

B. de Bruin↳ A. Serghini

44'

D. Walraven

45+1'

D. van der Heiden← B. Vugts

55'

T. van Haaften← Y. Tufi

55'

E. Fiemawhle← A. Sout

57'

J. Spruijt

67'

M. van der Weijden↳ J. Spruijt

70'

N. Jouhri← C. Schop

70'

O. Mrowicki← A. Serghini

77'

J. Buurmeester← T. Agyeman

80'

E. Fortes← R. Ouali

80'

R. Versluis← W. Vermeer

80'

M. van der Weijden↳ J. Simoes

81'

M. Zwart← D. Walraven

81'

J. de Haas← J. Spruijt

86'

T. van Haaften

90'

E. Fiemawhle↳ M. van der Weijden

Rijnsburgse

Barendrecht

1

Bradley

3

Graaf

2

Brand

4

▼

Vermeer

6

Bayram

18

⚽

Bruin

24

▼

Ouali

12

▼

Schop

8

Jongman

11

A

▼

Serghini

17

▼

Vugts

1

Zonneveld

25

▼

Agyeman

4

▼

Walraven

5

Zandberge

34

A

▼

Tufi

10

A

▼

Spruijt

8

Klaver

30

Rooijen

11

▼

Sout

9

⚽2A

Weijden

77

⚽2A

Simoes

Manager: René van der Kooij

55'▲T. van Haaften←▼Y. Tufi

55'▲E. Fiemawhle←▼A. Sout

77'▲J. Buurmeester←▼T. Agyeman

81'▲M. Zwart←▼D. Walraven

81'▲J. de Haas←▼J. Spruijt

Rijnsburgse Boys substitutes

2Haaften3Zwart12Overtoom15Buurmeester17Haas33Fiemawhle99Zwarteveld

Manager: Dogan Corneille

45+1'▲D. van der Heiden←▼B. Vugts

70'▲N. Jouhri←▼C. Schop

70'▲O. Mrowicki←▼A. Serghini

80'▲E. Fortes←▼R. Ouali

80'▲R. Versluis←▼W. Vermeer

Barendrecht substitutes

30Kooiman5Jouhri25Rimon10Fortes21Mrowicki14Versluis9Heiden