Rijnsburgse Boys 2–1 Almere City II: Result & Stats

Rijnsburgse Boys

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Almere City II

3/7/2026

Tweede Divisie · Round 25Sportpark Middelmors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys46%

×Draw22%

Almere City II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rijnsburgse BoysExpected goals in this matchAlmere City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.54

Rijnsburgse Boys

1.91

Almere City II

1.54

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 24% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 51 away

2.13

creates per match

1.86

1.21

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys

2.13

Almere City II

1.86

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys

1.21

Almere City II

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

Almere City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw

69%

Rijnsburgse Boys or Almere City II

78%

Draw or Almere City II

54%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+

26%

Almere City II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals

85%

Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals

57%

Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals

30%

Almere City II 1+ goals

79%

Almere City II 2+ goals

45%

Almere City II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)

60%

Almere City II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.13 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.91

Almere City II attack 1.86 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more

46%

level

22%

Almere City II scores more

31%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff